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bottoms up, folks. a canadian man is investing in elephant dung coffee. he feeds thai elephants coffee beans, and you kind of get the rest. he is selling it to high-end resorts, where customers are paying 50 bucks per serving. only 220 pounds have ever been made. just in case you're wondering, it apparently has an earthy and nutty taste. >> apparently, that's also the ingredient in certain energy drinks, has to do with the cattle version of that. let's take a look at these markets, folks. because we have got one hour of trading left. this week, we're up, what, ten straight trading days coming into today. we're down a little bit right now, but if we turn around, could be 11, that would be the first time that has happened since 191. the longest streak of up days, 1987. >> those dinner party guests are going to be absolutely amazed. if they're not also asleep. >> and bored out of their mind.

>> we've got also possibly the first down friday since the beginning of the year. thanks for watching "street signs." i'll see you for "options action" and "money in motion" at 5:00 p.m. today. >> not me. >> me. "closing bell" is next. hi, everybody. happy friday to you. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo at the new york stock exchange. this final hour will decide if the historic run for the market continues. >> it's a squeaker again. a lot of moving parts and pieces to keep an eye on. i'm bill griffeth. a few things to keep a watch on into this final hour. first, the sta&p still reaching for its all-time closing level . we've got an expiration on the close and a rebalancing. we're going to see a lot of volume come into the market.

the question is, will we see some buying as part of that expiration and rebalancing? that's what could take us over the finish line. keep an eye out for that. >> and the dow's winning streak in jeopardy right now with this decline. if it does close lower, that is going to be the first for the month of march. a higher close, of course, would make it an astonishing 11 straight sessions in the green and 9 consecutive all-time highs for the dow jones industrial average. a lot could happen in this final hour. you'll see it right here unfold in the coming hour. >> also unfolding in washington, a bad 24 hours for jpmorgan chase. first the fed puts conditions on its capital plans, reported that last night. then the senate rails on the firm on how it handled the huge london whale trading losses. that stock has been under pressure as a result today. we'll have a live report from washington on what's next for the bank and its ceo, jamie dimon. but, of course, all eyes right now ton the market, to tell you where we stand as we approach the final stretch for the week.

the dow jones industrial average right now down about 45 points, pulling away from the all-time high reached last night. the nasdaq is down about 13 points, about a half a percent, as bill mentioned. volume is going to ramp up in this hour. s&p 500 under pressure as well with decline in the session, just a fraction, down about four points, as you can see there. >> let's kick it around. in today's "closing bell" exchange, stephanie link from the street. chad joining us here at the new york stock exchange. jeff from raymond james. so far, the fed liquidity has been a great generator. >> the fed has applied a tremendous amount of liquidity. you also had the ecb, the bank of tokyo, and the bank of england also. what we have to see here is the baton passed from this liquidity-driven rally to more of an economic and earnings-driven rally. you're starting to see improvement in fundamentals. unfortunately, though, earnings

have not been that ebulant. you have to be careful, have to keep a careful eye on. our expectation for s&p earnings this year is about $105, where the estimates for the street are about $113. >> there's also a balance. as we see earnings ramp up, we could also see simultaneously the fed start winding down qe3 if the earnings pop doesn't happen like you're looking at, coinciding with the fed unwinding with, is that going to be disruptive for the market? >> it would be, but we're expecting the federal reserve is going to continue with their quantitative easing process, well into 2014. in fact, probably around june or july. they're not going to be winding down anytime soon. and when they do stop, they're just going to let the balance sheet age off. and they're not going to raise the short end of the yield curve for a very long period of time. >> steph, you're our resident trader. you had to think if today is not the day, monday, maybe tuesday,

you know, that this 9, 10, 11-day rally has end to some time. >> i don't think we should get too caught up in how many days in a row are we up or not. i think the trend is higher, and i think the trend is higher, because the economy is slowly getting better. if you look, this week wasn't a real robust week in terms of data, but you did have better retail sales. you had better initial claims. today, capacity utilization at five-year highs. i think that was very impressive. so i think you continue -- we're continuing to look at about 2, 2.5% gdp. and i would say that earnings in the fourth quarter were definitely better than expected. and should we actually start to see the global easing around the world start to work, maybe your up side is on the revenue line. if margins can stay -- kind of stay where they are, i think you can have revenue acceleration over time. >> i want to get your take on what we heard this morning, rick santelli. bill miller on "squawk box" this

morning. listen to what he said about stocks, talking about how that impacts the whole market. >> i think there's a lot more to go. stocks are cheap relative to bonds, and they're cheap relative to sort of the absolute levels that you'd expect, even at normalized bonds. if ten-year treasuries go to 10%, we had 6% ten-year treasuries in the 1990s and is a huge bull market. i don't think that's an impediment to stocks. >> and that's a value guy. rick santelli, jump in here. what are your thoughts? >> i don't disagree that stocks can keep going up. listen, i don't agree with part of the reason why they're going up, but since march, april, may, june of '09, i've never advocated selling with the game on. but i totally agree with that. i totally disagree that normalizing rates is going to be a non-event for the stock market. i completely, a thousand percent disagree, even though it happened in the '90s, what's going on today with the subsidy

the fed has put into equities via the treasuries and the mortgage markets, take it away, subsidies. whether it's in sugar, wool, treasuries or stocks is not going to be swallowed lightly by the market. >> jeff, what do you think? that's the big debate. is when the fed does start to nudge the punch bowl away, that it will be a disruptive event for the markets. or it will not be. where do you stand on that? >> i think she said it very well. i don't think the fed is going to raise rates anytime in the near future. i think they're afraid of nipping the nascent recovery in housing and the real estate market in the bud. i think that earnings are coming in better than a lot of people think. i agree that margins are going to stay wide. i don't believe in the regression of the mean for operating margins. i think earnings are going to come in at about $113 on the s&p this year and i think stocks will be higher at the end of the year than they are now. >> okay. >> and are there groups that you think lead us higher in terms of sectors? >> well, technology is cheaper than utilities right now. i'm looking at the technology

stocks. i think the energy stocks are starting to come to the fore. you've seen that in the past couple of weeks. in fact, as i've said before, maria, i like most of the sectors, except for consumer staples, because i think there have been too many people hiding out in consumer staples for the past year, worried about the fiscal cliff, sequestration at all. >> let's bring in our friend, steve grasso from stewart franco, who apparently got lost on his way to the "fast money" set. >> i was here the whole time. >> have you? >> i have to tell you, i'm enjoying the conversation. >> and what do you think? >> i think it's going to be impactful, once bernanke takes his foot off the gas. when he does, you're going to lose all sorts of traction on this market place. people are waiting for that to hit the exits. that's point-blank and everyone knows that. >> so you're on santelli's team on that one? >> you have to be. everyone has gone out there. it's going to be a is show-me marketplace when you see these earnings come in without the fed's backstop. and i don't think it's going to

perform well. >> steve, real quick, in terms of the end of day here, what are you expecting the flow to look like, given the fact that we've had this record run and we are looking at this record high in jeopardy with this decline today. what kind of end day you looking at? >> we're going to see a lot of volume, but usually it's offsetting volume. i don't expect us to make a new high, although we're inching up right now. i look at the cash. it's 1576 is where i have to go in the s&p cash to make a new high. >> very quickly, what's your best investment idea right now, chad? >> i would overweight technology, look at ibm as well as cisco. >> stephanie? >> i like energy, i'm particularly impressed that energy continues to go up in the face of a very strong dollar and i think the fundamentals are very strong there. >> jeff? >> i agree with stephanie. i like the energy and i think the technology undervalued. >> stevie? >> strong dollar benefits all of your outsourcing.

they get cheaper cost of labor. that's where you want to be, as long as the dollar is strong. >> you got one, rick? >> yeah, anything industrial and energy. we're having a renaissance in manufacturing thanks to energy. go with it. >> everybody says that. we'll see if we actually get policy to coincide. thanks, everybody. we'll see you soon. >> thanks, maria. >> appreciate that. the dow's ten-day winning streak in jeopardy today. let's get to bob pisani with what's behind today's pullback. >> and the dow is the price-weighted index and we have a lot of the high price names. ibm, when that moves, it weighs the dow. jpmorgan, a little bit of disappointment over the bank reports here. let me just show you how crazy things are. look at 3m. here's a dow component. it's up like 15%. straight up, it's now 14% above its 200-day moving average. that is very hard to sustain. you get a reversion of the mean, eventually. they'll be surprised at anything that's going to move here today to the downside. finally, get some fireworks at the close. we should have a fairly active

rebalancing. this happens every quarter, the s&p 500 gets rebalanced. they change the weightings of the stocks. exxonmobil, at&t and pfizer have had very active buyback programs. they'll have stocks to sell at the close. citigroup actually added stocks. they'll have stuff here. >> thank you so much, bob. >> heading towards the close, here we go, 50 minutes left in this trading session. the dow needs a positive close to be at an all-time high and the s&p needs to be only up 1.92 at an all-time closing high. but it's in jeopardy right now. we'll keep an eye on this. >> what did we say yesterday? buckle up. >> that's right. again. >> jpmorgan under the microscope today and on the hot seat on capitol hill. >> let me be clear, jpmorgan completely disregarded risk limits and stonewalled federal regulators. it is unsettling that a group of traders made reckless decisions with federally insured money and

that all of this was done with the full awareness of top officials at jpmorgan. >> we're going to take you live to washington and get the latest on this hearing. plus, one of our next guests says jpmorgan chairman and ceo jamie dimon is not taking enough responsibility. >> then, we're right between 14,000 on the downside, 15,000 on the upside for the down. the question we want to know is, will we see dow 15,000 next or 14,000? we've got a fiery bull/bear debate that you cannot afford to miss. it's all coming up on this most important hour of the trading day. oh, hey mike. what are you up to? oh, just diagramming this accident with my state farm pocket agent app. you can also get a quote and pay your premium with this thing. i thought state farm didn't have all those apps? where did you hear that? the internet. and you believed it? yeah. they can't put anything on the internet that isn't true. where did you hear that? [ both ] the internet. oh look. here comes my date. i met him on the internet. he's a french model.

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current and former jpmorgan executives have been getting grilled on capitol hill today over the bank's massive $6 billion trading loss last year, commonly attributed to the london whale, as it's been known. kate kelly has the lowlights of that hearing, as it were. kate? >> very well put, bill. this hearing is still going on. we're more than five hours into it, and subcommittee head carl levin is still putting folks on the grill. in this case, it's a group of three regulators from the office

of the controller of the currency, controller himself thomas curry, as well as examiner scott waterhouse, who had the direct relationship with jpmorgan's chief investment office at the time of the london whale debacle. interesting words from waterhouse on a somewhat heated exchange that he was present for with ceo jpmorgan jamie dimon. dimon thought that some e-mails going on a daily basis from the occ were essentially extraneous information with a level of detail they didn't need, according to waterhouse. let's listen to how he put it. >> early in the conversation, he was pressing me as the to, why would you need this information. what good is it? what do you use it for? i don't think you need this amount of detail. you can still do your supervision without it. >> for what it's worth, those e-mails were temporarily halted, then reinstated, and i'm told by other folks that the concern there was the confidentiality of them, not so much whether the occ needed them or not.

in other news today, i caught up with ina drew, the former head of the coo who was overseeing the london whale debacle when it happened who ultimate resigned. shp she told me she thought they went well, although the look on her face and the body language told a different story. it told that it was a very difficult day for her, as well as other jpmorgan executives, including douglas bronstein. >> thank you so much, kate kelly. more reaction right now with our guest. >> he says jamie dimon and jpmorgan are deserving everything they're getting here and more. but mark clabaro wants to know who got hurt. at the end of the day, this cost jpmorgan money and no one else. >> how many times do we have to yearly collapse the system before we learn a lesson? we almost collapsed it in 2008

with aig. in this particular sentence, you had a $6 billion loss and jpmorgan was able to absorb it. but do we need to collapse the system a third time before we learn the lessons? >> but it didn't. it didn't collapse the system. and in fact, as jpmorgan was highly profitable. >> that's like saying that the avalanche didn't kill me today, but it could fall down and kill six skiers tomorrow. the avalanche is waiting to happen. don't blame the snowflake, maria. >> are you saying this company should take no risk? >> i'm saying they should understand the risks. they don't understand the risks. jamie dimon didn't mislead the regulators, he actually doesn't know what he's doing. you can't mislead people about something you don't understand yourself. >> mark, you're not going to get off easy here either. we're not going to let you -- we're not doing all your heavy lifting here. this was reckless behavior and why wouldn't jamie dimon know about it before, rather than to having to hear about it

afterwards? where's the governance on this? >> that's a very good yes, and i think that there seems to be corporate governance and that's an issue between the board and between the shareholders and management and they need to make that decision. if the board decides they want to remove him, that's their choice and that's how companies work. i think jim focuses on what i think is a crucial point here. to me, the public policy question is about the system. you know if dodd/frank had ended too big to fail, would we care? i think we need to move to a banking system where firms cannot only use -- where a $1 trillion firm cannot only lose $6 billion, but a $1 trillion firm can go out of business. we need to get to that system. again, i'm concerned that we focus on jamie dimon to the seclusion of focusing on ending too big to fail. >> jim, what do you think? >> here's the thing. banks get $400 billion a year subsidy from the zero interest rate policy. that's relative to normalized interest rates. again, $85 billion year subsidy from too big to fail. they get more subsidies from fdic insurance, because it's mispriced. when jamie dimon is ready to

give up his fed food stamps, then they can talk about deregulation. >> well, are you saying that, you know, government should govern how companies approach their risk taking? we're talking about a private company, a publicly traded company. however, there was no victim. this was a victimless crime. it wasn't a crime. it was a victimless act, because it was their own money that they risked. but what you're saying is this company should take no risk? >> here's the problem, maria. you can't just look at the asset side of the balance sheet and ignore the liability side. with all these subsidies on the liability side, this is basically government propped up. do it with your own money -- >> they did. they did it with their own money? >> no, they didn't. they had federally insured deposits, when they're ready to give up their subsidies, they can do what they want with their assets. >> you can apply that to any money that they have. so what you're saying is everything that they do, the government should tell them how to operate, is basically what

you're saying. >> no, they can make commercial -- the problem with derivatives, maria, is they don't understand the risks. they're using the wrong models. this value is garbage, everyone on wall street knows it, but it allows them to use more leverage and the regulators don't understand this. >> but they've money in these same trades and other trades have gone very well, and they've made a lot of money in it. >> people make money in the casino all the time, maria. you're still gambling and the odds are bad. >> mark, aren't we at a point right now where the government needs to do something here to make a point that you can't have this kind of reckless behavior? because this is the whole point of the volcker rule, which would keep them from trading proprietary trading that would take too much risk and put some of their shareholder's money in jeopardy in this particular case. >> separate for a second the economics from the politics. i think the regulators and the politicians are certainly going to want to do something to cover their posteriors and say, this is why we need the volcker rule, this is why we need dodd/frank.

i think jim's got a point that you've created this small hazard, and what we're pretending at the end of the day is that the regulators are ever going to be able to sufficient to stop the risk taking, to stop the mistakes, better than credit to ers will. how do we put creditors back on the hook, and that to me means rolling back deposit rates. i think the difference i would emphasize here is, i don't generally think that banks can just give up the subsidies. i think it's got to be washington who's got to start taking some of these subsidies away. and i would rather see the senate start talking about what are the right policies we need, rather than saying, you know, well, is it jamie dimon? it's, to me, reminiscent of, i never thought the problem with fannie mae was frank rains, i though it was the whole structure. >> very quickly. >> having jamie dimon as ceo is like having a welder in charge of a hospital.

you don't want somebody working on your heart with a blow torch. he may be a fine welder -- >> oh, come on. >> give me a break. >> he's the smartest guy in the room. he's been very, very successful at jpmorgan chase. >> who's smarter? the regulator? do you think those people interviewing him today understand what they're talking about? >> he's doing this with government subsidies. >> let me ask you a question. if the volcker rule does take in effect and in fact they force the jpmorgans of the role to separate plain vanilla banking from taking this kind of risk, what do you think that does to some of the global corporations out there, the ibms of the world who want complex lending strategies, who want big lending done in a complex way with various products, what do you think that does to that kind of lending, whereas these banks, because they have those deposit institutions, because they have those deep deposits, they have the wherewithal to do that kind of banking. >> let ibm do it at the right

price and let them pay for it. don't do it with taxpayer money. >> all of these things are risky. >> it wasn't mortgages, it was mortgage derivatives. it wasn't mortgages. >> a massive housing bubble in which lots of defaults, you were going to have lots of losses come out of that. >> then derivatives exposures -- the derivatives exposures were six times -- >> but the derivatives exposures essentially net to zero. >> no, they don't. tell that to aig. aig -- >> the bailout of aig was about a backdoor bailout of the counterparties. >> we're way over time. we'll let you guys finish this over lunch some time. >> thank you very much. >> risk can be a tool, but it can also be a weapon. we found that out. when it's over done. anywhere, where we were? 35 minutes left in the tlading day. the dow is down 50 points. the streak is the in jeopardy today. >> yes, it is. meanwhile, the big winners in banking yesterday, citigroup and bank of america, two of the big winners from the fed's capital plan reviewers, but which stock

is a better bet for you right now. the trade, next. also, apple higher today. is it because of what bill miller told cnbc this morning. remember this? >> we have an overweight position on apple. we sold a lot of it in the high sixes and into the highs of last fall. we've just completed going overweight apple again. >> find out if you should follow his lead. that's coming up later on the closing bell. stay tuned.

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we have more details on this story unfolding about this stunning $600 million settlement between the s.e.c. and sac's capital cr intrinsic fund. let's go to scott cohn with this. >> this is by far the largest insider trading penalty ever, $614 million, actually, to be paid by steven cohen's sac capital and a number of its affiliated companies. to put it in perspective, the next largest penalty paid last year for $156 million. but sac founder steven cohen has at least, so far, not been accused individually. his firm is not admitting or denying wrongdoing as part of this settlement. that's part for the s.e.c. actions for decades, but nonetheless, it is, of course galling to some. the case involves insider trading in the stocks of two drug companies and two tech companies. in a statement, sac says it is happy to put these matters behind it, calls the settlement a substantial step towards resolving all outstanding regulatory matters. what about steven cohen?

the s.e.c. says its investigation is ongoing, but notes that two individuals have already been charged. they include john horbath who has pleaded guilty and cooperated with authorities, and matthew martoma who has pleaded not guilty and refused to cooperate to the dismay of the authorities. his attorney tells cnbc that today's settlement does not change the fact that his client is innocent. what about steven cohen? well, we will see what happens, but his firm has at least part of a big cloud lifted from it today, although at a huge cost, $614 million. maria? >> scott, thanks so much. we'll keep watching that. meanwhile, banking stocks making bill moves after the bombshell results of the federal reserve's capital plan review. let's get to kayla tausche. >> a mixed bag on the stress test. that caused financials to lose steam. first, the good. 14 bank holding companies cleared the fed's hurdle and can give back money to shareholders. some $45 billion of it, as of yesterday, nearly $30 billion in buybacks. the biggest surprise, though,

bank of america leading the dow, up 4% on the back of a $5 billion buyback, as well as buying back its most expensive preferred shares. american express also up on a big repurchase there as well. then there's the bad, goldman sachs and jpmorgan passing conditionally. they can return capital as long as they revise their remodeling by september. jpmorgan announcing a buyback less than half of last year's $15 billion. that and the whale hearing sending those shares down better than 2%. finally, undisclosed quote qualitative rnsz. that stock down sharply. finally, allied financial, the former gm financing arm now owned by the government, failing with and without returning capital on these test. once the firm hits certain strategic milestones, it can repay the taxpayer. no word, bill and maria, on whether any of these will resubmit their capital plans.

>> thanks, kayla. let's look at which bank would be the better investment right now. we're going to talk about city versus bank of america in talking numbers. j.c. o'hara, and on the fundamental sigh, zachary carabell, with river twice research. j.c., let's start with you. who do you like better? both, none? what do you think? >> bill, i like both companies and i like both charts. but if i had to pick one of the two, i would pick bank of america. bac was a horrible chart at one point and now it's a beautiful chart. if you look over the last three months, it traded in a nice consolidation zone. and after the results yesterday, we're seeing tremendous buying pressure coming in. investors want to own it right here and they don't care what price they're paying for it. it's up 4% on the day. technically, where can it go? we like it up to 14. once we start getting to the 14 area, then we can start looking to the 2011 highs in the 15 area.

i want to be involved right here. >> zack, both of these were beaten up during the financial crisis. they've got new leadership now. who do you like best? >> beautiful charts are like looking at the teeth of an 85-year-old guy and say, wow, you've got wonderful teeth, i so don't want to be an 85-year-old. i feel like the banks are simply not the space up to be in this market, even if there's some money to be made in these stocks. and certainly if you'd bought bank of america in 2010, you'd be up and you'd be very happy. i would be astonished if bank of america is up another 200% between now and 2014 or 2014. but i think there are a lot of other areas of the market with innovative companies, dynamic and growing, that could offer massive returns, whereas the financial services is industry, which these are two of the leaders, is still, no matter how you slice it, a contracting industry with huge headwinds. >> jc? >> well, zachary, i love my grandmother, she's 85, and i

think she might live to 100, and i love this stock. you mention a lot of bad things about this stock, but investors want to get involved right here. and i look at the intrinsic value and it's around 14, and that's my first price target. we have the fundamental target and technical target lining up together, so i love it right here. >> that was no ortdonthia orr geriatric slur. i i would rather be a high-end retail or some industrials. i think net/net, unless you can find a creative, innovative or growing area of the industry, these stocks will tend to lag those innovative ones, as they have for the past five years. >> you had us at good teeth. after that, we didn't hear a thing. >> you had me at hello. >> thank you both for joining us today. >> thanks. 30 minutes before the closing bell sounds for the week. you had fun with that. >> i did. >> we have a market that is down

in jeopardy of the record-setting week. we are looking lower right now after eight straight record highs. >> no, we had -- >> ten straight days of gains, eight straight records for the dow. go figure. >> is today's pullback just a pause on the road to dow 15,000, or are we going to see 14,000 before we hit 15,000? both signs of that debate are still coming up here. also, wall street's biggest bull is here. we want to hear from him. but you won't believe how high jeffrey sean darby says the market will head this year. it's coming up on "closing bell." stay with us. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 when i'm trading, i'm totally focused. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and the streetsmart edge trading platform from charles schwab... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 gives me tools that help me find opportunities more easily. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can even access it from the cloud and trade on any computer. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and with schwab mobile, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can focus on trading anyplace, anytime. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 until i choose to focus on something else. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 all this with no trade minimums. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and only $8.95 a trade. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 open an account with a $50,000 deposit, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and get 6 months commission-free trades. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 call 1-866-294-5412.

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well, we're in the zone, aren't we? it's been a red zone today. it's been quite a winning streak before today. now the dow is hovering right around 14,500. >> we're at 14,502 right now. which way are we going? are we going to see 15,000 first or go back to 14,000? joining us in a good old-fashioned bull/bear debate, we have michael farr. michael's the bull in this case. he's president of farr miller in washington and the cnbc contributor. are >> why stunned? >> well, i'm kidding. >> cautiously optimistic. i'm always optimistic, you know. >> john brown is the senior

economist and market strategist at euro pacific capital. lord brown, why the do you think we're going to 14,000 first? >> who can judge a thousand points in such a volatile market? but basically, i'm more bearish than michael. first of all, i see the revenues and margins of companies are coming down, and yet the stock market has gained double digits, as you rightly say, in the last two months. last week, we saw retail sales look on the surface very good, but there was no sustained surge in the market. and people, i believe, are searching, desperately, for return. they're being forced by the fed and low interest rates to take increased risks and they're tempted to chase the hot dog. and therefore gamble rather than invest. and we talk about of nominal highs, but actually, a real high would have to be between 17,000 and 18,000. >> you mean when you factor in inflation? >> yes, yes, maria, exactly.

>> but when you say you're gambling, is that really accurate? i mean, you're betting on corporate's ability to grow. so is it really -- i mean, you think this is really a casino? isn't that a little aggressive? >> you say betting, and that's probably the right word. with margins and revenues falling, i think it becomes less of an investment decision and more of a bet or gambling. people are frightened to be left out of the rush. and that's when they become imprudent, not prudent. >> what about that, michael, aren't we going to get to a point where people will come in for the wrong reasons in this market? >> i think they're already doing that. and by the way, i don't think this is fair, to have someone with john's fabulous accent. i mean, he already sounds to much more credible than i do. but,, you know -- >> but you're wearing a green tie. come on. >> indeed, i am. and tomorrow we're going to have a great celebration, but for today, we're looking at a market that's doing so much better. i think for not-fabulous reasons, okay? we've had a whole lot of fiscal

stimulus and deficit spending. we've had a whole lot of monetary stimulus. they're still spending $85 billion a month. i think that the momentum here and the fed and the tape are telling you that thing goes higher. i expect a pullback and i have the same concerns of john. but, you know, i think you've got to enjoy while it's here and don't bet against this trend. >> john, are you equating where we are right now with where we were, say, in 2000, at the peak of the dot-com boom? that really was gambling at that point, wasn't it? >> yes, it could be. and i think the next, we had a dot-com crash. we've had a real estate crash, and in my view, the next one is going to be a banking crash, because of the debt trap in treasuries. but i agree with michael. a lot depends on the fed. but the fed is feeding this economy and market on morphine, but there comes a point where more morphine is doing harm to the patient. and the big question is, when and if the fed is going to withdraw the morphine dose in order to save the patient.

>> is it doing more harm than good right now? >> i think it's going to and it's crowding small companies out of investment. there's no return. people with these falsely low interest rates, i think, are actually hurting the economy now. if we bought time for the restructuring of the economy, but the government's hindering restructuring. >> michael? >> i think that john certainly makes sense. and these short-term calls are always dicey. but if you're going to say which direction the most likely next 500 points is, i'm going to say stick with the trend and it's going higher. not necessarily, as john has said, for good reasons. i mean, i remember, there was this pretty girl in high school who said she'd go out with me one night, only because if she stayed home, her mother was going to yell at her. true story! >> come on, she was -- >> no, that's a true story. >> she wasn't telling you the trut truth. >> sometimes you can end up in a

good place for not the best reasons. >> no one prettier than maria. >> we're going to leave it right there. i've had enough. >> i had fun with that, michael. you're a sport. you're a sport, michael. we'll see you soon, guys. >> happy holidays. look at this. see the market? >> coming back! >> coming back, beyond just 32 points. we were down 50 just moments ago. we will see whether the streak can continue. >> at 20 minutes left, the dow's ten-day winning streak could be snapped in the next 20 minutes, but the blue chip index does have a silver lining today, in addition to the fact that it looks like we're off of the lows. that's next. and housing has been a major factor in this market, but are there any potential roadblocks to recovery that investors need to know about? housing and urban development secretary john donovan joins us later on the "closing bell." at fidelity, we do it by merging two tools into one. combining your customized charts with leading-edge analysis tools from recognia so you can quickly spot key trends and possible entry and exit points. we like this idea so much

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why turbo? trust us. it's just better to be in front. the sonata turbo. from hyundai. welcome back. with the dow industrial's historic winning streak on the verge ofeneding today, there are some blue chips still sitting at or near all-time highs. jackie deangelis with the details. >> despite the dow losing some ground today, eight companies made new 52-week highs during the session. within the financials, it was american express, bank of america, and travelers. in the tech scope, ibm, utx, and

3m. boeing and johnson & johnson also on the list. even with today's point losses, the dow is still up more than 10% this quarter. and that means that it's shaping up to be the best first quarter for the index since 1998. a strong first quarter has been key in years past, because it's been an indication that the index could see strong gains for the year. there have only been 12 other times since 1950 that the dow was up more than 8% in the first quarter. in each of those years, the dow managed to if i wefinish not on positive for the year 100% of the time, but in 10 of those 12 cases, they finished with double digit gains. many trying to figure out if the first quarter is any indication, dow 15,000 or higher doesn't seem impossible. but keep in mind, it could be a bumpy road to get there, even in the years where we saw first quarter performance over 8% yielding those double digit gains at the end of the year, there were some negative quarters in between. >> all right, jackie, thank you so much. 15 minutes before the close of

trading for the day and for the week. we've had a spectacular week. for the day, we're coming off the lows, down 29 points on the dow jones industrial average, but that winning streak is in jeopardy right now. >> i don't know. we've got 15 minutes. come back here. we'll see. >> it could happen. >> but sam stowball says history is not on the side of the bulls, once the s&p 500 does finally close at a new high. and can you believe this story, bill? two more of carnival's ships aren't cruising the high seas after more mechanical problems. is it time to put this stock in dry dock is carnival is a circus? that trade later on the "closing bell." w? well, i didn't really. see, i figured low testosterone would decrease my sex drive... but when i started losing energy and became moody... that's when i had an honest conversation with my doctor. we discussed all the symptoms... then he gave me some blood tests. showed it was low t. that's it. it was a number -- not just me. [ male announcer ] today, men with low t have androgel 1.62% (testosterone gel).

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hi, there. we're just a few minutes away from the close. >> oh, hello. >> there you are! >> a lot of people on the floor today and crowded. we've got an expiration at the close. volumes right in a few minutes going to ramp up. we were expecting -- we're almost at a billion shares right now. >> we have a rebalancing going on, which is too complicated to go into, and we also have an expiration for options and futures. where do we go from here. we bring in two friends, sam

stovall, with the green tie. >> happy st. paddy's day, everybody. >> happy st. paddy's day. >> you guys have been calling for a 10% gain, and feel like we're almost there, but you feel like when we hit this all-time high, that may be it for a while. >> the market could go up another 3%, before the message terrify from marathon. it pretty much stumbles from exhaustion, and then we slip into another decline of 5, 2, 20%. so, yeah, maybe we end up working our way slightly above 1,600, before we make that stumble. >> you know, everybody's waiting for some kind of a pullback, david. but even 30 points. 30 points, is that the pullback we're going to get in this market. i'm not convinced that, in fact, this rally is over. >> no, i agree with you, maria. retail sales, industrial production, we're very strong this week. you've had ireland sold 5 billion euros worth of bonds

they sold it and have come back. there's been healing going on in europe. >> the consumer sentiment number this morning was troubling. >> i think the high gasoline -- >> you know, that's a good point, bill. the high gasoline prices. i think they've affected things. you've had -- you've not had really the job numbers have not been great jobs. they've been eat, drink, and get sick jobs. meaning, you're working as a waiter, working in health care. they've not been phenomenal jobs. and the wage growth has not been there. so you want to see. you want to see it 300,000, 500,000, 1 million jobs were created in august of 83. >> there's an imbalance of buy orders, according to art. we're waiting for this to materialize. i think it's a little too late to be advertising this now. i'm wondering if this is mostly pared and we're not going to see much change to the average. but there is some stocks to buy here. bottom line here, would you put new money to work in this market, knowing that we've seen this huge run-up? do you want to buy this stock market here? >> we're hesitant to add new

money at this point. i think longer term valuations still look relatively attractive, but the reason we employ a technician is to give us some guidance in terms of time and direction, and right now, the concern is that we probably are likely going to possibly stumble a little bit, and so the feeling is, you know, let's hold off and let's just see what -- >> why are we going to stumble? >> i mean, if you are looking to go several years down the road, then i would say, by all means, go ahead and add. because right now, we're looking at valuations that could imply that we are at a 10 to 15% discount to historical averages. >> were you part of the group that put out that list of the ten stocks you could hold forever. >> you want to own the oil drillers, because you've got this gas and shale revolution going on, oil and gas shale. >> a game changer. >> mexico. they're doing great things. buy mexico, buy japan hedged equity. maria, that thing is up 20%. we first started talking about it weeks ago when it was up 3%.

it continues to rise. i am concerned the american association of individual investors bullish ratio was 45%. the long-term average is 39%. >> too much bullishness now. >> and volatility is very low right here. it's below 12, 11.49. >> all the conditions are ripe for a little correction. >> but too much bullishness. but i thought the retail investor was sort of creeping in. you know, one finger at a time. >> where do you stand on it? >> i think what we're showing here is we've got a lot of disagreements on both sides. it really all depends on what your time horizon is. if it's longer term, it doesn't really matter if we're going to see a pullback. they get recouped in a matter of months, two months on average, corrections in a matter of four months. so, yeah, buy on the dips, but if you don't get the dips, doesn't matter, buy them now anyway. >> use this strength to take some money and put it in japan and emerging markets. they have all lagged somewhat, the united states, with the

exception of the hedge. stay with the health care in the u.s. and the drillers in the u.s. that's what we've been telling folks. a very good trip to president obama to israel next weekend. >> sam, thank you so much. a short break and the closing countdown after this break. >> also, will we see this last-minute comeback that could take us to a record high again for the s&p and the dow. we'll see, coming up here. >> then, yahoo! ceo marissa meyer has taken some heat for banning telecommuting and new hiring practices, but a fellow female ceo says there never would have been an issue if mayer was a man. that's coming up later on the "closing bell." you're watching the "closing bell" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. stay with us. us. it's a hawk with night vision goggles. it's marching to the beat of a different drum. and where beauty meets brains. it's big ideas with smaller footprints.

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to his last, which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade. three minutes left. let's look very quickly at this historic week. this is what we did this week. four records, all in a row. that adds on to what we had done last week, when we had all those records there. today, it's trying to come back here, but we'll see whether we can pull this off. the dow would need to be positive, the s&p would need to be up 9.12. doesn't look like that's going to happen, but volume is very heavy. >> we knew that volume was going to pick up at the end of the day. volume was heavy at the beginning of the day as well. let's talk about that again with our guest right here. >> alan meldez. when you see the volume like